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UK unemployment rate drops in April, according to ONS

The UK unemployment rate fell in April as the economy began to reopen, according to figures released on Tuesday by the Office for National Statistics.

The unemployment rate declined to 4.7% in the three months to April, from 4.8% in March and in line with consensus expectations. Non-essential shops and outdoor hospitality reopened in April, while indoor hospitality resumed in May.

The figures showed the number of payrolled employees rose for the sixth consecutive month, up by 197,000 in May to 28.5m. However, it was still 553,000 below pre-pandemic levels.

Since February 2020, the largest declines in payrolled employment have been in the accommodation and food services sector, people aged under 25 years, and those living in London.

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ONS head of economic statistics Sam Beckett said: “The number of employees on payroll grew strongly in May, up by almost 200,000, although it is still over half a million down since the pandemic struck.

“Job vacancies continued to recover in the spring, and our early estimates suggest that by May the total had surpassed its pre-pandemic level, with strong growth in sectors such as hospitality. Meanwhile the redundancy rate remains subdued, while the number of employees on furlough has continued to decline.”

On Monday, Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a four-week delay to the lifting of lockdown in England, which had been due to take place on 21 June. According to reports, Chancellor Rishi Sunak will not be extending furlough support despite the reopening delay.

By Michele Maatouk

Source: Sharecast

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UK economy grew by 2.3 per cent in April as high street and hospitality reopened

UK economy grew by 2.3 per cent in April as government restrictions affecting economic activity continued to ease.

It was the fastest monthly growth of gross domestic product (GDP) since July last year and exceeded economists’ forecast of a 2.2 per cent jump.

In comparison with April 2020, monthly GDP in April 2021 is estimated to have grown by 27.6 per cent.

“Today’s GDP number confirms that the UK is witnessing a strong recovery,” said Emma Mogford, fund manager of Premier Miton.

“The release of pent up demand, as consumers return to shops and restaurants, is significant. Investment by businesses is also picking up, now that there is greater certainty over the outlook post-Covid and post-Brexit.”

Service sector shines

The service sector grew by 3.4 per cent during the month, with consumer-facing services reopening as Covid restrictions eased.

Output in the production sector fell by 1.3 per cent during April, the worst fall since January as three of the four sectors contracted.

Within production, mining output dropped sharply, by 15 per cent, because of planned temporary closures for maintenance of oil field production sites.

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Meanwhile, the construction sector contracted by two per cent following a strong March, with new work slowing down faster than repair and maintenance.

“Today’s figures show that although confidence is returning to the construction sector, this remains delicate and growth in specific work sectors is mixed,” said Clive Docwra, Managing Director of McBains.

“While overall output remains just above pre-pandemic levels, driven by an increase in repair and maintenance work, new work contracts declined which bucks recent growth trends.”

Sunak: ‘Promising sign’

April’s GDP remains 3.7 per cent below the pre-pandemic levels seen in February 2020, but is now 1.2 per cent above its initial recovery peak last October.

“Today’s figures are a promising sign that UK economy is beginning to recover,” finance minister Rishi Sunak said in a statement.

Last month, the Bank of England raised its forecast for British economic growth in 2021 to 7.25 per cent from February’s estimate of five per cent.

That would be the fastest annual growth since 1941 when Britain was recovering during World War Two.

“We’ve grown accustomed to erratic GDP figures since the pandemic, but today’s data confirms that the UK reached a turning point in April, when the re-opening of non-essential retail and easing of hospitality restrictions boosted spending,” said Jonathan Sparks, chief investment officer at HSBC.

“Consumer confidence has surged higher in recent months as the reopening continues, which bodes well for more domestically-focused companies.”

By Damian Shepherd

Source: City AM

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Delay to ending lockdown would hit UK economic recovery

A delay to the planned lifting of lockdown on June 21 would “materially” hamper UK economic recovery from the pandemic, a major business group has warned.

The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) said the economy is in a “temporary sweet spot”, but there would be a big threat to the outlook from any Government move to push back the lockdown road map, as well as from rising inflation.

It cautioned this could derail the current rebound, which the BCC predicts will see the UK economy grow by 6.8% this year – the strongest since official records began.

The biggest spending surge since 1988 is set to help the UK economy recover from a 1.5% contraction in the first quarter to grow by 4.1% between April and June as lockdown restrictions lift, according to the group.

Pent-up demand from Britons with savings built up in lockdown is set to see the economy continue growing by 3.5% in the third quarter, before easing back to 1.1% in the final three months.

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The squeeze on activity and the damage to confidence from a marked delay to the full lifting of restrictions or further restrictions to combat Covid variants would materially slow the recovery

Suren Thiru, BCC head of economics

The BCC said this will be largely driven by a 5.5% rise in consumer spending in 2021 – the strongest for 33 years – while business investment will surge by 4.1%.

But it warned over the risks from inflation and ongoing restrictions.

The economic rebound will also be uneven across sectors and for different people, with the BCC adding that trade will suffer from post-Brexit disruption.

Suren Thiru, head of economics at the BCC, said: “The risks to the outlook are on the downside.

“A more significant surge in inflation would weigh on a consumer-led revival by eroding their spending power.

“The squeeze on activity and the damage to confidence from a marked delay to the full lifting of restrictions or further restrictions to combat Covid variants would materially slow the recovery.”

The BCC forecasts inflation – currently at 1.5% – will jump to a three-year high of 2.6% in the third quarter of 2021, but should ease back to the 2% target in the second quarter of next year.

The BCC also raised worries over youth unemployment, with job prospects for young people set to suffer the most from the pandemic.

While it forecasts the wider rate of unemployment to peak at 6% in 2021 thanks to furlough support, the BCC expects the youth unemployment rate to soar to 15.6% once the scheme ends.

Hannah Essex, co-executive director of the BCC, said: “Young people now entering the workforce and those who lost jobs during the pandemic are at particular risk of longer-term unemployment.

“As the economy emerges from the pandemic, we need to create a dynamic and flexible skills system that meets the needs of local employers and supports individuals looking to return to the jobs market.”

Source: iTV

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Small business confidence rises but lockdown fears remain

Small businesses in the UK are increasingly confident they can grow and drive economic recovery, though many still harbour fears about the ongoing impact of Covid restrictions.

This is according to new data published by the British Chambers of Commerce in partnership with Funding Circle, the UK’s largest small business loan platform.

The survey of more than 1,000 firms, almost all SMEs, reveals the majority (63%) are emerging from lockdown with either concrete plans or intentions to grow their business over the next 12 months. The manufacturing sector (68%) is particularly optimistic, while nearly six-in-ten (58%) of the hardest hit business-to-consumer (B2C) firms such as hospitality, catering and retail still anticipate growth.

Although the UK economy is yet to fully reopen, many businesses have demonstrated their resilience and are already carrying out their vital role as engines of economic growth.

More than half (53%) said they had restarted or returned to pre-pandemic levels in April, with a further 27% expecting to reach this milestone by October. By the end of the year, 91% of businesses expect to have fully restarted, with only 1% not expecting to restart for the foreseeable future.

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For many, the biggest barriers to reopening are Covid-related, such as the risk of further lockdowns (cited by 38% of respondents) or social distancing requirements (cited by 37%). Concerns around reduced customer demand (33%), inflation pressure (18%) and recruitment difficulties (14%) are also weighing on UK businesses.

Access to finance will be key in helping SMEs to unlock their full growth potential, with nearly half (44%) believing it will help overcome the remaining barriers they face.

Commenting on the findings, Claire Walker, Co-executive Director of the BCC, said: “The ability of businesses to bounce back from the devastation caused by Covid is a huge testament to their resilience. Although, the financial support put in place by the government to help many through the last 12 months will have played a crucial role.

“The government must now clarify the future of safety measures, such as social distancing, and set out a clear package of support that would be available should further restrictions be imposed on businesses this year, or in the years to come.

“Firms will feel more confident and will be more willing to invest in jobs and in developing their business, if government can give assurances that a safety net of financial support will be provided should there be a need for restrictions which reduce or stop commercial activity in order to protect public health.

“There is cautious optimism growing among firms that as the economy now gradually unlocks, they will be able to push on and return to growth. But the shadow of Covid is very long; many firms still feel uncertain about what the future holds. Having access to finance to help them weather this continuing uncertainty may well prove vital.”

Lisa Jacobs, Europe Managing Director at Funding Circle, added: “While the road to recovery won’t be straightforward, it is great to see SMEs are looking towards the future with such optimism. From our conversations with customers, it’s clear their appetite to invest in their businesses is as high as ever. We’re ready to continue helping them access the finance they need to overcome the remaining hurdles they face and achieve their growth ambitions.”

Source: Punchline

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UK retailers report more inflation pressure as economy reopens

UK retailers have reported the smallest price falls since the start of the COVID pandemic, partly due to shoppers buying more clothes and shoes as lockdowns eased, and they said price pressures were likely to rise further over the rest of 2021.

With the Bank of England watching carefully for signs of how quickly inflation is picking up, the British Retail Consortium’s shop price index for May showed prices were 0.6% lower than a year before, compared with a 1.3% fall in the year to April.

This was the smallest drop since February 2020.

The BRC’s shop price index typically shows year-on-year price falls, unlike the broader measure of consumer price inflation targeted by the BoE which includes a wider range of goods and services.

The BoE has forecast that CPI is likely to overshoot its 2% target and go above 2.5% by late 2021, due to a global rise in energy prices and what the central bank views as temporary pressures and one-off effects linked to the pandemic.

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British shoppers were keener to spend on new clothes and shoes last month as social-distancing restrictions eased, enabling people to meet at pubs and restaurants, the BRC said.

Supply chain disruption linked to COVID had also pushed up the cost of furniture and electrical goods, it added.

Prices were likely to rise more broadly later in the year, BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson said.

“Global food prices are currently at their highest in seven years, shipping costs have risen threefold since 2019, and commodity prices are climbing. We will likely see these costs filter through in the second half of this year,” she said.

Some new post-Brexit rules which affect food imports from the European Union take effect from Oct. 1, with others coming later, which the BRC warned would push up prices too.

The BRC collected price data between May 3 and May 7.

By David Milliken

Source: UK Reuters

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UK job vacancies highest for a year as lockdown eases

UK job vacancies have hit their highest level since the start of the pandemic as the easing of lockdown measures has led employers to start recruiting.

In the February-to-April period there were 657,000 vacancies, up about 48,400 on the previous quarter.

The unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.8% in the three months to March, down from 4.9% in February, the Office for National Statistics said.

The ONS said there were “early signs of recovery” in the jobs market,

However, despite the rise in job vacancies over the past 12 months, the level remains almost 128,000 below its pre-pandemic level in the January-to-March quarter of 2020.

The official figures confirm several reports in recent weeks by recruitment companies that they are seeing a rise in job advertisements, leading to concern among some employers that they could face staff shortages.

The ONS said the number of workers on payrolls had risen by 97,000 between March and April, but was still 772,000 lower than before the pandemic struck.

Darren Morgan, ONS director of economic statistics, said the number of employees on payroll “rose strongly in April” as the economy began to reopen, continuing an improvement from its November trough.

But he said: “There remains, however, three-quarters of a million people fewer on the payroll compared with the pre-pandemic peak.

“With many businesses reopening, the recent recovery in job vacancies continued into April, especially in sectors such as hospitality and

Chancellor Rishi Sunak said the latest figures showed the impact of the government’s focus on protecting jobs during the pandemic.

“While sadly not every job can be saved, nearly two million fewer people are now expected to be out of work than initially expected – showing our Plan for Jobs is working.”

Business leaders welcomed the vacancy levels as positive signs for the economy, but warned there was still a long way to go.

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‘I’ve applied for 500 jobs’

As many experts have pointed out, Tuesday’s positive jobs news does not disguise that many people in the labour market are still struggling.

Interior designer Sheila Smith lost her job working for hospitality venues in October – and despite some 500 applications is still unemployed.

She worries that businesses are looking for someone younger and cheaper than her. “I’ve been for a few interviews, which I haven’t been successful at,” she told the BBC.

She said the most frustrating aspect of the job search was the lack of communication from potential employers.

“When you take time to go for a job interview, get yourself prepared, but then you hear nothing back – that’s the most frustrating thing.”

Although the number of job vacancies is rising, they are still well down on pre-pandemic levels and Sheila reckons there’s about 200 people applying for each post advertised.

“It destroys your confidence,” she said. “I’ve worked solidly for years in the industry, and you find yourself in this situation scrambling for jobs.

“You feel like you’re stuck at square one.”

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Matthew Percival, director of people and skills at the CBI business lobby group, said: “Businesses are starting to report vacancies they’re struggling to fill so government support for skills and retraining is essential.”

He added that companies still needed clarity over the rules for the next stage of reopening the economy, which is currently planned for 21 June.

Research consultancy Capital Economics said the fall in the jobless rate showed that the jobs furlough scheme was “insulating the labour market”.

The firm added that although it expects the unemployment rate to rise over the next few months, that would most likely be due to people returning to the labour market rather than people losing their jobs.

The most encouraging sign here is that vacancies over the three months to April averaged 657,000. The ONS said its experimental monthly vacancy statistics for April itself were “at near pre-pandemic levels”. There are increasing numbers of employers expressing concern about recruitment difficulties.

The jobs data continue to show some signs of resilience and recovery, with unemployment down again to 4.8%, and employment up for the fifth consecutive month. It’s so far a slow recovery based on gradual re-openings seen up until last month.

The pattern is, though, as uneven as the lifting of the restrictions. Hospitality and retail jobs are still well down on pre-pandemic levels, and this means all of the loss in payrolled jobs and more can currently be explained by what has happened to young workers. There are still over four million workers on the furlough scheme, who count as employed.

Source: BBC

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Economic recovery ‘will be faster than predicted’

THE UK’S economic recovery from the pandemic is likely to be faster than first anticipated, a leading international agency has suggested.

A forecast by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) published yesterday shows the vaccine rollout and the lockdown easing were having a more positive effect on the economy than previously predicted.

Experts at the OECD have anticipated that gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 7.2 per cent this year, and 5.2% next year.

Their report stated that the growth was being driven by a “rebound of consumption, notably of services”, and that GDP is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels in early 2022.

It added: “Keeping up the pace of vaccinations and responding to emerging virus mutations are key challenges going forward.”

It comes after dire warnings from economists during the height of the pandemic, with fears that unemployment would sky-rocket and hundreds of thousands of jobs would be lost forever.

Despite the improved forecast, concerns are still growing over plans to scrap the furlough scheme in September, along with the uplift to Universal Credit benefits.

Opposition politicians, charities and some economists have warned that removing the financial support which has helped people throughout the pandemic suddenly risks creating a “cliff edge” and could see redundancies and job losses rise.

Last week, the SNP urged the Chancellor to reconsider ending the furlough scheme in four months, while yesterday the party’s work and pensions spokesman David Linden appealed to minister Therese Coffey over plans to scrap the rise in UC at the same time.

He argued that experts had said the rise of £20 per week had been a lifeline for struggling families, and risks plunging more people into poverty when it is withdrawn.

Despite upgrading its economic predictions for the UK, the OECD also warned the country could face the biggest decline in potential output growth on average among the G7 group of countries, while losses are estimated to be relatively small in Japan, Canada and the United States.

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It also warned that unemployment levels, currently at 4.9%, will peak at the end of the year.

It also said Brexit will have an impact on economic recovery, explaining: “Increased border costs following the exit from the EU Single Market will continue to weigh on foreign trade.

“Unemployment is expected to peak at the end of 2021 as the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme is withdrawn.

“Declines in potential output growth in major Euro area members could be 0.3 percentage point per annum on average over 2019-22,”the report added.

“The United Kingdom could suffer the biggest reduction amongst G7 countries (a decline of 0.5 percentage points per annum), in part reflecting the additional adverse supply-side effects from 2021 following Brexit.”

The experts recommended that the UK Government should continue to support the economy until a recovery has begun, explaining: “Fiscal and monetary policies should stay supportive until the recovery firmly takes hold, facilitating structural change as support to existing firms and jobs is scaled down.

“Public investment should address long-term challenges, notably reducing greenhouse gas emissions and boosting digital infrastructure.

“Extending higher levels of cash support beyond current plans and continuing to boost training programmes can help affected households.”

In terms of the global outlook, the OECD has revised up its growth projections across the world’s major economies since the last full outlook in December of last year, putting global GDP growth at 5.8% this year.

Along with the more positive prediction for the UK economy, the OECD also warned that the global recovery from the coronavirus crisis was at a critical stage and much of it hinged on the vaccine availability worldwide.

Chief economist Laurence Boone said that the OECD’s latest projections could give hope to people in countries hard-hit by the pandemic, who may soon be able to return to work and begin living normally again.

He added: “But we are at a critical stage of the recovery. Vaccination production and distribution have to accelerate globally and be backed by effective public health strategies.

“Stronger international cooperation is needed to provide low-income countries with the resources – medical and financial – required to vaccinate their populations.

“Trade in healthcare products must be allowed to flow free of restrictions.”
Responding to the outlook, Chancellor Rishi Sunak said: “The strength of the UK’s growth forecast is testament to the ongoing success of our vaccine rollout and evidence that our Plan for Jobs is working.

“It is great to see some early signs that the UK is bouncing back from the pandemic, but with debt at nearly 100% of GDP, we must also ensure public finances remain on a sure footing.

“That’s why, at the Budget in March, I set out steps we will take to bring debt under control over the medium term; ensuring our future recovery is sustainable.”

By Hannah Rodger

Source: Herald Scotland

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The pound retreats after hitting three-year high amid variant concerns

The pound retreated this morning after reaching a fresh three-year high versus the dollar amid economic recovery hopes.

Well into the London session after the bank holiday weekend, sterling reversed its course to fall 0.2 per cent to $1.4183.

The pound edged lower as concerns over a new coronavirus strain outweighed increasing investor optimism on the UK’s economic recovery.

Three-year high

Sterling touched its highest level since April 2018 of $1.4250 during the Asian session against the dollar.

Analysts attributed the rise to positive global investor sentiment towards Britain’s economic recovery.

“Overseas investor sentiment generally is positive towards sterling given the vaccine roll-out and the reopening of the domestic economy,” said Neil Jones, head of FX Sales at Mizuho Bank.

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“The stage is set for the pound to push higher I would suggest.”

Optimism remains high

UK house prices jumped by an annual 10.9 per cent in May, the most in nearly seven years, mortgage lender Nationwide revealed this morning.

Jones said that the house price data, which surprised in the upside, helped to keep optimism around the British currency.

Economic indicators including retail sales and employment measures are also looking up, as well as a deluge of new orders driving a record increase in British manufacturing last month.

Sterling also found support from Bank of England policymaker Gertjan Vlieghe last week, who said the central bank was likely to raise rates only well into next year.

By Damian Shepherd

Source: City AM

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UK economy set to grow 7.2 per cent this year

The UK economy is set to grow at its fastest rate since the second world war this year and in 2022, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has forecast.

After the Covid-19 ravaged economies, the UK suffered a 9.8 per cent contraction in 2020 – its worst in nearly 300 years.

The organisation anticipates a GDP growth of 7.2 per cent this year and 5.5 per cent in 2022.

The OECD has warned that global recovery is now at a “critical stage” and unequal vaccine distribution could swell global economic disparities.

The collision of Brexit and the pandemic may also hinder the UK more than other G7 nations – while the UK’s losses will likely far surpass that of Japan, Canada and the US, according to OECD.

“Declines in potential output growth in major euro area members could be 0.3 percentage point per annum on average over 2019-22,” it said.

“The United Kingdom could suffer the biggest reduction amongst G7 countries (a decline of 0.5 percentage point per annum), in part reflecting the additional adverse supply-side effects from 2021 following Brexit.”

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A “rebound of consumption, notably of services” has stoked positive growth and GDP is anticipated to return to pre-pandemic levels in the early months of next year.

“Keeping up the pace of vaccinations and responding to emerging virus mutations are key challenges going forward,” the OECD added.

Global GDP growth has been estimated to be around 5.8 per cent this year.

“The strength of the UK’s growth forecast is testament to the ongoing success of our vaccine rollout and evidence that our Plan for Jobs is working,” chancellor, Rishi Sunak, said in response to the OECD’s outlook.

“It is great to see some early signs that the UK economy is bouncing back from the pandemic, but with debt at nearly 100 per cent of GDP, we must also ensure public finances remain on a sure footing.

“That’s why at the budget in March I set out steps we will take to bring debt under control over the medium term; ensuring our future recovery is sustainable.”

By Millie Turner

Source: City AM

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Increases in mortgage arrears expected this year, says UK Finance

More home-owners are expected to fall into mortgage arrears this year as the economic repercussions of the coronavirus pandemic continue to be felt, according to UK Finance.

The trade association, which represents the banking and finance industry, said mortgage arrears remained close to historically low levels in the first three months of 2021.

From March 2020 to the end of March 2021, lenders were offering payment holidays of up to six months to borrowers whose finances had been affected by the coronavirus pandemic.

Nearly 2.9 million mortgage payment deferrals were granted while the scheme was active.

With the economic impact of Covid-19 continuing to be felt, we anticipate there will be further increases in mortgage arrears during 2021

Eric Leenders, UK Finance

For borrowers who need additional support beyond the six-month payment holidays, lenders are continuing to offer tailored support.

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UK Finance’s latest figures show a small increase of 230 mortgages in arrears compared with the previous quarter, with a total of 77,640 home owner mortgages in arrears of 2.5% or more of the outstanding balance.

Within the total, there were 27,280 mortgages with significant arrears representing 10% or more of the outstanding balance. This was an increase of 620 on the previous quarter.

UK Finance said this figure has slowly increased since early 2020 but from a low base, largely driven by customers who had several missed payments before the pandemic.

Eric Leenders, managing director of personal finance at UK Finance, said: “While there was a slight rise in total arrears in quarter one 2021 compared to the historic low levels seen before the pandemic, the additional support from lenders has helped many mortgage customers stay out of arrears.

“With the economic impact of Covid-19 continuing to be felt, we anticipate there will be further increases in mortgage arrears during 2021.

“Any customer who is concerned about their finances should contact their lender early to discuss the options and tailored support available to them.”

Only 190 home-owner mortgaged properties and 180 buy-to-let mortgaged properties were repossessed in the first quarter of 2021.

Although Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) guidance allowed firms to re-start litigation activity from November 2020, lenders voluntarily committed to pause repossessions in line with a “winter truce” from mid-December 2020 to mid-January 2021, UK Finance said.

It added that repossessions are expected to eventually increase due to the backlog of cases that did not take place in 2020.

These cases will have been in train before the pandemic, it said, adding that repossessions are always a “last resort”.

By Vicky Shaw

Source: Belfast Telegraph

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