inflation

As the UK economy has dealt with the blows of the Covid pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Bank of England has had to roll with the policy punches in its effort to pursue financial and economic stability.

Amid an atmosphere of enduring conflict in the East and inflationary pressures, Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey spoke with Breugel director Gundstrom Wolff, laying out the present environment in the UK and how policy can stabilise finance, the economy and currency in the wake of a large-scale military clash, a pandemic and the UK-specific development of Brexit.

Bailey said that the present “shock from energy prices” was historic, greater than any single year of the inflation-stoked 1970s, albeit with the caveat that that decade featured several rough years in succession.

“In the UK, and indeed elsewhere, we are very much facing a very large shock to aggregate real income and spending. That is not something that we have a policy toward that can make it go away,” Bailey said. “It’s coming through energy prices, through imported goods, through some food and is very much what we’d tend to call trade shock in that sense. Inflation measures are well above target. Unfortunately, I think it’s best to think that there is some more to come on that front.”

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“We expect it to cause growth and demand to slow. We’re beginning to see the evidence of that in both consumer and business surveys,” Bailey added.

Tradeoff, unconventional shocks

Bailey said that the Central Bank’s goal was to return inflation to its target “a couple of years out” and ensure that real adjustment occurs sustainably with minimal volatility and disruption. Bailey also said that the BOE and its contemporaries around the world remained committed to a globalised, integrated economy, much as they were during the widespread financial crisis more than a decade ago.

Bailey focused primarily on the disruptions of the pandemic and the dispute between Russia and Ukraine, stating that those two globally impactful events overshadowed and muddied any comprehensive analysis of Brexit’s effects on the UK’s economy and trade.

He said that thus far he felt the Central Bank’s planning had been effective in the face of the harrowing Covid era, the calmer-than-expected Omicron variant period and pandemic recovery, which resulted in a tight labour market and an unforeseen buildup of personal savings.

He said, however, that those with fewer economic means bore a disproportionate brunt of the current circumstances because they did not benefit generally from the surge in savings while simultaneously experiencing greater exposure to rising energy costs.

A resolution to the crisis in Ukraine would go a long way toward solidifying the UK’s position and stabilising energy and commodities markets, Bailey said, though near-term pressure could make the situation worse before it improves.

Now approaching a month old, the conflict has brought a deluge of question marks, which Bailey said caused the BOE to revise its guidance regarding “further modest tightening” in the form of interest-rate hikes from “likely to be appropriate” to “may be appropriate.”

“We’re facing a very big shock, by any historical standard. We’ve got a very large tradeoff between inflation and output activity, with the two moving in opposite directions. There is a very high level of uncertainty,” Bailey said.

Behind the curve?

In prior instances of market shock, Bailey said that the current policy would be behind the curve, facing pressure to accelerate counter-inflationary measures, including rate hikes.

However, he said, this was not a typical instance of a demand shock, with some favourable economic indicators as well as the large scale of the disruptions giving some pause and cause for caution to policymakers.

“We’ve got a pandemic followed by a European war, on any scale that is a very difficult position to be in for policy. The task we have is clear, but it’s hard, but we will stick to it and all central banks are committed on that front,” Bailey said. “In our case, it’s appropriate to tighten policy in these circumstances, but we do so recognising the uncertainty.”

Forex implications, long-term prognosis

Bannockburn Global Forex chief strategist Marc Chandler assessed the broader strategy in the UK and its impact on the pound, which has produced a mixed forecast and tepid results in recent days even as stable currencies have been attractive to risk-off investors.

“Sterling has underperformed here in March. It is the second weakest major fx, off 2.45%, well less than the Japanese yen’s 7.1% decline. The Bank of England hiked rates but softened its guidance, and the market does not think it can keep pace with the (US Federal Reserve),” said Chandler, noting that the US two-year premium over the UK doubled in March, around 100 basis points and that he saw the pound as “heavy,” poised to drop to $1.28 or $1.29 from its present position near $1.38.

Bailey emphasised repeatedly the need for collaboration among central banks around the world in a globalised economy. Yet as tones grow more hawkish in many countries, including the US and Canada, the UK has opted for prudence.

“At the end of the day, Bailey talks like a hawk and acts dovishly,” Chandler said. “There are shades of former Bank of England governor Mark Carney, who was often talked about as the bad boyfriend who over-promised and under-delivered.”

By Andrew Knoll

Source: Capital

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The biggest financial concern of UK adults, in both the short and longer term, is rising inflation, according to new research from M&G Wealth.

A quarter (25%) of people surveyed cited rising inflation as their greatest financial concern this year, while just more than one in five (22%) respondents said rising inflation was their biggest financial worry for the next five years.

M&G Wealth’s latest research which quizzed 2,000 UK adults who have personally, or who have parents or grandparents who received financial advice from an adviser in the last five years, looked at how individuals felt about their savings habits as the cost of living rises.

Unsurprisingly, the research found respondents were more focused on their short-term financial needs. Beyond rising inflation, worries included ‘my investments losing money’ (18%) and ‘not saving any money’ (17%).

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The cost of living played heavily on the minds of respondents. More than a quarter (26%) surveyed said they were worried the cost of living will go up, and so preventing them saving as much as they would like to, while 18% said their bills were too high to allow them to save more.

Savings rates overall were less than desirable. Some 14% of adults save less than £50 per month, and nearly a fifth (18%) of those surveyed said they could not afford to save more.

Looking to respondents’ ‘rainy day fund’, the picture was a little brighter. Nearly a quarter (23%) of those surveyed said they had more than a year’s expenses set aside. However, a third (33%) of respondents had expenses to cover three months or less saved, and 8% of respondents had nothing saved at all.

Les Cameron, savings expert at M&G Wealth, said: “While consumers have no control over rising inflation, currently at a 30-year high and predicted, by the Bank of England, to reach over 7% by the spring, there are steps they can take to take control of their finances.

“From energy bills to their weekly shop, families are starting to feel the pinch, and as a result are unable to save as much as they would like. Many are taking practical steps such as shopping around for cheaper prices to bring down the cost of basics like bread and milk, and setting out and sticking to a budget will help families feel more in control of their spending in the short-term. Though it may feel difficult at the moment, investing any savings, no matter how little, will provide a long-term benefit and hopefully some peace of mind for the future.

“When it comes to savings consumers are understandably worried. Current savings rates are lower than inflation, meaning those with significant cash savings really need to consider whether to accept that inflation is eroding the value of their money, or take some investment risk to try to maintain or grow the real value of their money. Investing is not, however, a decision to be taken lightly and is an area where most people could benefit from receiving some form of financial advice or guidance before going ahead.”

BY REBECCA TOMES

Source: IFA Magazine

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Inflation in the UK will soar far above the Bank of England’s target this year as the Russia-Ukraine war drives energy prices to record highs.

Accelerating prices will hit “almost all businesses and consumers” this year and choke economic growth, Thomas Pugh, an economist at RSM, warned today, adding that the cost of living could climb as high as nine per cent.

Surging oil and gas prices sparked by the Russia-Ukraine war has led economists at RSM to predict the energy watchdog could hike the price cap a further 75 per cent in October.

Threadneedle Street will trade off shielding economic growth and in exchange for taming inflation by hiking rates at each of its next four meetings and send borrowing costs to 1.75 per cent by November, according to Bank of America.

Rates have not been that high since December 2008, underlining how concerned the Bank is about the cost of living pulling ahead of its two per cent target.

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Communication gaffes over the last year have “undermined [the Bank’s] ability to use words to control expectations,” analysts at Bank of America said.

As a result, lifting rates will be the Bank’s main tool to curb price rise expectations.

Poor wage growth coupled with elevated inflation will erode real incomes at one of the steepest rates in peacetime, Bank of America said, adding that household consumption, which accounts for around 60 per cent of UK output, will stagnate for the next 12 months.

Both RSM and Bank of America slashed their forecasts for UK GDP growth this year.

Commodities are widely used by producers across the economy, meaning higher prices will leave them with the choice of either operating with lower profit margins or raising prices to offset higher costs.

The latter increases the risk of creating conditions in which a wage/price could occur, in which workers demand higher pay to maintain their living standards, leading firms to raise prices even further.

Inflation is already at a 30 year high, hitting 5.5 per cent in January.

By JACK BARNETT

Source: City AM

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As UK inflation hit a 30-year high of 5.5% in January, analysts have warned that it has the economy in a “chokehold”, with the peak yet to come.

According to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics, the 12-month UK Consumer Price Index was at its highest level since records began in January 1997. The last time it was higher than current levels was in March 1992 when it stood at 7.1%, based on historic modelling.

Laith Khalaf, head of investment analysis at AJ Bell, said: “Inflation is building and is now expected to reach a crescendo of over 7% in April, heaping pressure on consumers, businesses and savers.”

Although the Bank of England, which is expected to continue increasing interest rates on the back of better-than-expected UK job data, believes inflation will sink back down to 2% by 2024, Khalaf noted that inflation is, indeed, “unpredictable”.

“It is prudent to acknowledge that it might possibly tail off, though the bank’s forecasting capabilities haven’t exactly won any awards in recent times. The Ukraine crisis further muddies an already blurred picture.”

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Rupert Thompson, chief investment officer at Kingswood, said: “Inflation will head higher still over coming months, likely peaking at around 7.5% in April when the increase in the energy price cap feeds through. Today’s data leave a further 0.25% rate hike in March looking all but a done deal.”

Meanwhile, prices continue to rise while wages remain suppressed.

Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Group, stated that markets “will be relieved that the pace of inflation increases appears to have moderated, but today’s further price rises mean consumer spending will keep getting squeezed, heightening the risk of tipping the economy into reverse”.

Rachel Winter, associate investment director at Killik & Co, said: “Inflation has the economy in a chokehold, with prices skyrocketing and consumers feeling significant pressure on their household budgets.

“High energy prices and increased shipping costs are key contributors to this inflationary pressure, but there are other causes for concern in the near term.

“Consumers are braced for next month’s rise in rail fares, growing mortgage payments and higher national insurance, and the Office for National Statistics confirmed yesterday that wages are falling in real terms because they are not keeping pace with inflation. All eyes are on Russia and Ukraine, where conflict would be likely to push oil and gas costs even higher.”

Sarah Giarrusso, investment strategist at Tilney Smith & Williamson, noted that the UK economy remains strong, growing by 7.5% in 2021, representing the strongest growth in the post-war period.

But the Omicron variant of Covid-19 has caused disruptions. “The employment data released yesterday (15 February) showed employment fell 38,000 in January. However, the labour market remains tight with vacancies at their highest level since records began in 2001 and an unemployment rate of 4.1%,” said Giarusso.

“Given this strength and high inflation some economists are expecting the Bank of England will have to be more aggressive than currently signalled by MPC members.”

Willem Sels, global CIO of HSBC Private Banking and Wealth, added that global factors such as supply chain bottlenecks leading to price pressures is likely to see UK inflation continue drifting higher.

“This affects everything from food and clothes prices to cars. There are more local UK factors too, in particular the 54% increase to the Ofgem energy price cap, which will feed through into CPI,” he explained.

“Job figures remain positive but are not enough to offset the squeeze on real household incomes. With inflation exceeding wage growth, real household income will probably fall by 2.5% this year.

“The silver lining? We think the Bank of England will hike interest rates less than the market fears, as it knows that the factors behind inflation are also the drivers behind lower real income, which threaten to limit economic growth. We expect the Bank rate to rise to 1.25%, lower than the markets’ expectation of around 1.75%.”

IG’s Beauchamp added: “Another Bank of England rate rise remains all but certain, but at least this slower pace of CPI increase means the more outlandish expectations will be dialled back. ‘Slow and steady’ are the watchwords for tightening on both sides of the Atlantic, it seems.”

Recent economic data has strengthened the case for more fiscal tightening in the coming months, with consensus expecting a third interest rate hike following the Bank of England’s meeting in March.

At Federated Hermes, the base case is for a further 0.25% increase, although a larger 0.5% rise “cannot be ruled out”, according to Silvia Dall’Angelo, senior economist at the international business of the firm.

“In the short term, the Bank might need to provide a stronger signal and bring some tightening forward to prevent second-round effects from elevated realised inflation against the backdrop of a tight labour market,” she said.

“As the year progresses, the trade-offs the bank faces might change, as high cost-push inflation, fiscal and monetary tightening weigh on the consumption outlook.”

By Alex Rolandi

Source: Professional Adviser

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